TINYg supporter Falanx Assynt predictions

14 – 27 JUNE 2018

JORDAN: Islamic State could seek to exploit new Syrian refugee flows to infiltrate Jordan, but risk of attack will remain low; any attacks will be sporadic and limited to border areas; escalation in fighting in southern Syria will likely lead Amman to boost arms supplies to rebels; refugee influx will build further pressure on economy

SYRIA: Islamic State (IS) attack in Raqqa Province points to increased threat of isolated anti-Kurdish strikes in North-East over coming months; IS will look to conduct attacks in Raqqa to exploit Arab-Kurdish tensions and build support; group’s weakness suggests major rise in operations unlikely over next six months.

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