The ConversationNo. 7 · Crowded places

The most likely attack on a crowded place in 2027 will not involve drones or AI. It will involve a hired van or a kitchen knife, and it will be over in under five minutes.

By TiNYg Editorial · 6 November 2026

For all the attention on new technology, the attack methods that have killed people in crowded places over the past two years are old ones. On 25 July 2026 a 21-year-old drove a rented van into crowds at Berlin’s Christopher Street Day celebration, then continued the attack with a blade. One person died and 29 were injured. German authorities called it an Islamist terrorist attack. The attacker had been given a suspended juvenile sentence for planning an attack only two months earlier.

The pattern repeats across jurisdictions and motives. A vehicle was driven into pedestrians in Derby in March 2026, injuring seven. In Modena in May, a driver rammed pedestrians and stabbed a bystander; Italian authorities ruled out terrorism and pointed to psychiatric illness. In Vancouver, the man accused of killing 11 people with an SUV at the Lapu Lapu Day festival in April 2025 has just pleaded not guilty, with trial set for 2027. In London, the Golders Green attack in April was a knife attack in an ordinary street.

Why these attacks persist

Low-sophistication attacks need no network, no training and no materials that trigger alerts. They require only a crowd and access to it. For lone actors, young offenders and people with mixed or unclear motives (see article 4) they are the default choice. And because the motive is often ambiguous for hours or days, the first responders on scene are nearly always venue staff, stewards and the public, not police.

Where the vulnerabilities actually sit

The professional view

There is no technology fix. The defences that work are layered and unglamorous: properly specified and installed vehicle security barriers (to IWA 14 or the earlier PAS 68), controlled vehicle gates staffed by people with authority to stop traffic, crowd management that avoids dense static queues on open roads, and staff trained to run, hide, tell and to give first aid. Martyn’s Law will make several of these expectations explicit for qualifying sites and events from 2027.

What to do now

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