The regime is expected to commence in spring 2027. Organisations that wait for commencement to begin will be building their evidence in a hurry, and the SIA will be able to tell.

On 5 August 2026 an explosive-laden drone struck an aircraft at a German airport. Most private sites still have no means to detect a drone, and no legal right to stop one.

Russia's campaign against Europe is run through disposable proxies recruited online. The targets are increasingly private companies, and the people who run them.

Prevent referrals hit a record in the year to September 2025, and more than a third were aged 11 to 15. The threat model built around ideology and adulthood is out of date.

AI is not yet a game-changer for terrorism. It is an accelerant, and it is quietly removing one of the most reliable early warnings security teams have had.

Antisemitic terrorism is now driven both by lone actors and by an Iranian state-linked proxy campaign. The same campaign has named US and Israeli commercial interests as targets.

The most likely attack on a crowded place in 2027 will not involve drones or AI. It will involve a hired van or a kitchen knife, and it will be over in under five minutes.

Targeted violence against corporate leaders doubled in 2025. Most attackers are strangers, most attacks are ambushes on predictable routines, and most warning signs appear online first.

Islamic State's core has been degraded, but its African affiliates are building routes into Europe. The Berlin Pride attacker's journey shows how.

No device was found on any aircraft. But hoaxes now achieve much of what an attack does: disruption, cost, fear and a view of how responders behave.